STAR WARS - THE PREQUELS - Virtual Edition

THE SUCCESS OF THE PREQUELS

MAR 25

Roderick wrote:
"I've hesitated some time before I posted ZAC's mail, because it's not directly plot related. And speculation about the actual story has been the main focus of this Discussion Forum. But I'd like to reformulate the question that Zac asks. Do you think that the Prequels are going to be the most successful films ever? What are the elements that make a film like Titanic such a block-buster, and which elements could make Episode 1 a similar or even bigger success? Rick McCallum has stated (if my memory is correct) that he thought the STORY was the strongest thing about the new Star Wars movies. But what makes this story so special? To put it in ZAC's words: "Will non-STAR WARS-fanatics keep coming back to see it 10 times (like they have with Titanic)?" What do you think?"

ZAC wrote:
"I would like to start a new topic concerning how much the prequel will
make. This discussion forum has catered for all aspects of the prequel
thus far.....and this, to me is very interesting.

Before I start, Titanic has NOT overtaken Star Wars as the most successful
movie. The only real true list is an inflation adjusted list. It cost
much less to go to the movies in 1977 than it does in 1998 !

On this, STAR WARS made the equivalent of 812 Million dollars (in 1998
dollars)........putting it nearly 400 million ahead of Titanic (in North
America)

The 812 Million includes the 330 odd million in 1977, which gets adjusted
up to about 680 Million or so, when you take into account inflation. Then
added to this is the 130 odd million for the re-releases which obviously
doesn't get adjusted.

So, there you go.......Star Wars has made an inflation adjusted total of
812M in North America (compared to 430M for Titanic). And it has made an
inflation adjusted total of 1.3 BILLION worldwide (compared to 1 Billion
for Titanic)

TITANIC actually doesn't get into the top 10 when inflation is taken
into account (lets face it......it's the only real true list)

Just for general interest......Gone with the wind is the most successfull
film of all time, making an incredible 863 Million in North America (I
don't know how much it made worldwide..........I'm sure well over a
billion), while STAR WARS is at number 2 with 812 Million. All inflation
adjusted, of course.

Here is the list (North America only)......I know STAR WARS's and TITANIC's
figures worldwide, but I don't know the others.

NORTH AMERICAN figures. 1998 Dollars (Worldwide figures in brackets)

1......GONE WITH THE WIND ........863 Million
2......STAR WARS.........................812 Million (1.25 Billion)
3..... E.T.......................................594 Million
4......The 10 Commandments..........572 Million
5......The Sound of Music................570 Million
6......Jaws.....................................559 Million
7......Dr Zhivago.............................542 Million
8......The Jungle Book....................485 Million
9......Snow White...........................476 Million
10....Ben Hur.................................471 Million
11....101 Dalmations......................460 Million
12....Empire Strikes Back...............432 Million
13....Titanic....................................427 Million (1.01 Billion)

Now, the various Disney classics, as well as Gone with the wind have been
re -released many times over the years. The re-releases have obviously not
been inflation adjusted as much as the origianl releases for the various
movies.

This list show who the REAL box-office champions are.......but I can't find
a worldwide inflation adjusted list. If anyone finds one........post it.

Anyway........can the prequel possibly get to number 1 or 2 in North
America (and, indeed worldwide)? It would have to make over 800 million to
do so. Think of how successful Titanic has been......then double that.
That is what the prequel will have to accomplish !

I think it relies on 2nd and 3rd viewings. Something that is good
visually, like "The Lost World - Jurassic Park", made a heap in its first
week......then it filtered out, because people didn't come back to see it
again, cause it wasn't that great. Titanic didn't make as much as "The
Lost World" in its first week, but, because it is so damn good, everyone is
oming back to see it again, and again.

Obviously Episode 1 will make a fortune in its first week.......but it will
only maintain moviegoers if it is a great movie. Will non-STAR
WARS-fanatics keep coming back to see it 10 times (like they have with
Titanic)? I hope it's good !"

APR 07

Gwar wrote:
"There has been many people saying that the SW prequel will be the
biggest movie of all time. I don't think it will happen. I doubt that
they will do better than Titanic has. (Readers are hissing at this
comment) Here is my reasoning:

Yes, the prequels will have a huge opening weekend. It might set a
record for the biggest ever. The movie will probably be one of the top
grossing movies of the year.

Drawback #1. It IS a sequel (even though the story is set before the
origional, hence the 'prequel' label). People consider 'Temple of Doom'
a sequel to 'Raiders of the Lost Ark' even though it is a 'prequel'
Sequels tend to not to do well as the origional. ANH beat ESB adn ROTJ
even though the latter are considered better than the first by many
fans. Yes, there are a few examples, but not many (Aliens).

Drawback #2. They are going to have different actors/characters in them.
Many people only think of SW with Han, Luke, and Leia in them and might
not like stories without them. Example, how many Star Trek fans did not
like TNG because it did not have the origional cast even though many
things were still there? Even I would rather see more Luke, Leia, and
Han. Hate to tell some of you, but Ben Kenobi is not the most favorite
of SW characters. The only character that will still be the same is R2
and possibly 3PO. Big time fans will go for movies right away but the
average viewer might not.

Drawback #3. Vader. A lot of people love to hate him. Even when Anikin
is good, people will know what a jerk he becomes and will always be
saying, 'He saved that guy, but in a few years, he will proabably kill
him. Also, Anikin is going to be 9 years old. I don't know about you,
but I tend to not like movies where a little kid saves the day. It makes
me think of a movie aimed at little kids.

Drawback #4. The effects. This movie is being billed as the most special
effects ever used in a movie. People are going to think of it as a just
a FX movie unless the plot is the best ever.

I hope that it does do well, but I will not loose sleep if it does not
become the top movie ever."

APR 27

Richard Banks wrote:
"My main comments revolve arround the success of episode 1, I think it's true
to say that it is the most eagerly awaited movie of all time bar non,
although I doubt it will become the biggest movie of all time either in
North America or worldwide (although I would love it to)

I think it could well become the first movie to take $100m in it's first
weekend, let me look at it's lasting appeal, let's face it ALL ardent
Starwars fans will probably see the film several times within the first
week, the first time for the buzz and the special effects, the second and
third to simply enjoy (much the same as the SE last year) I dare say general
sci-fi fans will see it twice and the movie could well reach £200m in it's
first month, after that it will rely on the "general public", this depends
on the plot, the story and the general feel and look of the film, I can't
see it making the same as Titanic, certainly not worldwide anyway

Titanic did not really face much competition, it also coincided with
christmas, valentines weekend, easter, presidents day weekend and several
oscar related weekends, they all helped it along, episode 1 will be released
at a time when other big films are out, Titanic also attracted a wider
audience with many people visiting the cinema for the first time in several
years to see it

A lot depends on key ingredients on detail such as using the fox fanfare,
the same lucasarts logo, the "a long time ago" screen, the same starwars
logo and most importantly the same John Williams score at the beginning with
the scroll etc, etc, it also needs a big, big first 30 seconds to overwhelm
the audience like ANH

Then the reality is that once the scene is set in that first opening, the
film must be full of all the starwars ingredients and have a starwars feel
to the film, I'm wary the film may not have a 70's 80's feel to it and may
try to cater too much for the 90's, this may help the boxoffice but would
retract from the starwars side of the film, the environments, characters and
acting must all be starwars and good

The end of the film I trust will have a feel good factor with hopefully the
dark film being episode 2

Finally I reckon episode 1 will go on to make approx £325m ish

The SE last year proved that starwars has a massive appeal, in my opinion
for numerous reasons it still is and always will be the finest film ever
made, many have copied and failed and after an endless onslaught of
overhyped and disappointing sci-fi movies recently I'm sure it will fill a
big gap in the market and show everyone that when it comes to action, story
& effects the starwars universe is in a class of it's own"

Mario Lima wrote:
"I think the Prequels will be a great success. Gwar's comments were well thought out and justified but I don't totally agree with his comment about how a lot of people were used to old characters, using as an example the Star Trek series.
I think you'll find that most Trekkies out there like all 4 variations of the series, sure a few hate Next Gen, and some hate Voyager but on average they're all very popular.

Another point I'd like to make is that this isn't going to be anything like what was done with Star Trek:Generations, where the producers rushed the "old-meets-new concept", the pressure on Lucas for prequels and post-sequels has been relentless since Return of the Jedi came out. Its a lot better to have waited and come up with a good chapter in the saga rather then doing thing like Star Trek 5 and 6.

The argument about it seeming like it was made for kids, is a bit odd. I would tend to think that because its about the corruption of a good person into becoming evil, and starting out with a cute lil kid is a lot a stronger theme than for the original 3 films."

Josh wrote:
"I'd just like to say I think people are under-estimating the entire Star
Wars phenomenon. Star Wars has embedded itself in American mythos;
actually, in the mythos of the world. Star Wars truly is a cultural
phenomenon, which has touched so many people and is truly a wholesome
tale. About it's success...I'd like to be put on record saying that I
think Episode I has a very good chance at being the most successful film
of all time. I have faith in George Lucas, I know in my gut that he has
written a masterpiece. And Star Wars has a cult following, something
that Titanic didn't have. I once read about an interview of a fan who
camped out in front of her local theatre 4 full days before the release
of ESB, who had claimed to have seen A New Hope over 180 times in the
theatre. People are in love with Star Wars. And no matter how good the
story is (and I'm absolutely sure it will be an incredible tale), this
will be a success for the simple reason that it is Star Wars. A good
analogy would be if Homer had written a sequel to The Oddysey; it
wouldn't matter how good it was, people would still read it simply
because of the original story. This is just my opinion, and again, I
may be wrong. Just to throw in my two cents of the subject."

'Jediforce 13' wrote:
"Concerning the success of Episode I, it depends on how well they make
it. The characters have to be interesting, considering that we won't
have the original people ( Luke, Leia, Han, and Chewie) .
Though we will have our favoriote droids back :-)
As for the money making, I'm sure with the zoo on its first weekend it
will make a fortune ( I mean come on, Star Wars Episode I???? Who could
ask for anything more?) :-)
It also has to have an interesting storyline, major space battles, the
usual stuff.
If its done right I'm sure it will do well."

Greg Mynyk wrote:
"This is only rough math on my part, mind you, but it's interesting to
look at. In original release, Star Wars (ep. 4) made around 300 million
on the domestic side. Now if you figure on an average ticket price of
$2.50 back in 1977 (i'm guessing), that would mean that approximately
120,000,000 tickets were sold. Now if even HALF as many tickets are
sold for the prequels (not unreasonable an expectation), the total would
clock in at $480 million (at 8$ a ticket). Of course if the same amount
go to see ep. 1 as ep. 4, you'd be looking at close to billion =). My
votes in for the $600 million mark personally.
Again, that's just a rough guess, but not unreasonable I'd say. The
only thing that would throw that off I'd say would be the fact that they
are prequels. There are many out there who may not 'get it' without
Luke, Vader, et al. being in them as we know them now. Only time will
tell I suppose."

APR 28

Michael Urbanski wrote:
"Episode 1 WILL be the highest grocing film of all time. It will
break all records. It will also surpass Titanic. I liked TItanic, by the
way. Yes, Titanic was released over a few holidays and had moderate
competition at the box office. Episode 1 will capture the attention of all
audiences. The point I am trying to make is...What moron would release his
or her film at the same time as the new Star Wars movie?! If they didn't
care about making money at the box office, maybe they would. I strongly
feel that May 25, 1999 will be a BIG day for Star Wars. I would love to see
it released on its' birthday, but we may only see the world premier tv
commercial on that date. I guarantee that day will be one of the most
exciting in my life. Of course, the success of the film will depend greatly
on the acting in the film. This is the only subject of the prequels that
makes my spine tingle in an uncomfortable manner. I don't think that Jake
Lloyd will be as much as a part of hte film as we have been led to believe.
He will be a major character, of course, but there will much more going on
in the story. Lucas cannot focus his masterpiece on the story of a boy.
Something else that I would like to tackle is the possibility of Episodes
7 - 9. I guarantee that Lucas will leave an untied end at the conclusion of
Episode 3 that will have yet to be dealt with."

Robert Tyrrell wrote:
"Time to spew forth my two cents on the subject. First off, GL crafted
the story of Luke Starkiller since the mid-seventies. As he states,
time and time again, he had to develop the storyline that occurred
before episodes 4-6 in order to write 4-6. Simply put, George has been
working on StarWars, Episodes 1-3 for well over twenty years now. Now
we all know what a perfection Mr. Lucas is. I believe he has done his
damndest to write an elegant tale of the events leading up to ANH, TESB,
& ROTJ. After all, it's his creation. He knows better than anybody
what is supposed to happen, why things happened, and what will happen
next. Is it just plain obvious that the stories of Star Wars are
supposed to be more than mere science fiction? To some, sadly, it is
not. Manny people do view it as science fiction. Yet if they would
look deeper into the story, it's nearly impossible to categorize it into
any single genre. I believe it spans all fans tastes.
Essentially, what I am trying to say is this: George has been working
on this thing for years. Not months, not a year, not a couple of
years. 20+ years. You can't work on something for that long and it be
complete crap. I believe, as happened with ANH, that Episode 1 will
redefine not only the way movies are made, but the entire movie
industry. It will spawn a whole new range of actual stories, instead of
"how many explosions can we fit into this one scene?" or "what shall we
use our SGI for next?" Lucas has an unbelievable imagination. As he
loves to exclaim, the fx are there simply to augment the story line.
The effects are as Lucas envisions them. No more, no less. The
computer just makes things a lot easier for him to realize his dreams.
My thoughts? Lucas crafted a wonderful story back the late 70s and
early 80s. This time around? He will have ushered in a new era of
stories with episodes 1-3. Will non SW-fans flock to see the movie
again and again? Probably not as much as with Titanic. No Leo.
(Although, many girls may find themselves being drawn to the cute
adorable little Jake Lloyd, who can also righteously kick some serious
butt). Will Episode 1 (dammit LfL!!!! Release a title!!! We are tired
of using Episode 1 in our discussions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
(--Henceforth, Episode 1 shall be called E1 for brevity) be the top
grossing movie of all time? That's a tough call to make. Although many
of us SW phanatics wish this to be so, it may not happen. It depends
upon the story line, yes. In fact, that's what it all depends on. Your
regular laypeople (those folks who do not follow cinematic events with a
religiousness rivaling the Spaniards back during the days of the
Inquisition) do not usually fall into the hype surrounding films. Many
people are still unaware a certain genetically altered atomic lizard is
soon to be rampaging downtown New York. So Fox was extremly smart in
the way they marketed Titanic. Will it be any different with SW? Doubt
it. Why else would LfL choose the company? You can bet that those
people who are not aware of the SW legends being reborn next May will
know by the end of the year. Fox and LfL will definitely let people
know that this is a new story. Not a rehash of the first three. But a
new story. Then all of those people out there will be drooling. This
will be a very hyped up movie. And the attendance will be phenomenal.

Will it rake in more money than any other movie before it? Will it beat
Titanic?

I believe so."

James C. wrote:
"I gotta say I think it is really perverse that already we're talking
about the numbers here. And yet I wanna add my two cents. My suspicion
is that I think it will be hard to thought not impossible to outgross
"Titanic."

Here's what would have to happen:

* GET GIRLS TO WATCH IT: If Ep. 1 wants to do outgross Titanic,. its
gotta get female viewers do repeat business. It's that simple. Titanic
transcended gender because it was a weepie (which appealed to women)
disguised as an action movie (which appealed to men). Plus it had that
dreamy Leonardo. And while Ewan McGregor is lovely lovely man, he's no
Leonardo. And to that effect I think it is very very important that
Padme not be a "princess in distress" but that she gets to shoot stuff
and say cool things like the rest of the boys in Ep. 1. If she's just
there to look pretty, kiss this market segment goodbye. However, I read
somewhere that Carrie Fisher is writing dialogue for Padme, so that's a
good sign. ADVANTAGE: TITANIC.

* TEENAGE BOYS: Star Wars was and is, the ultimate "boy story." They
will see this movie over and over and over. ADVANTAGE: No contest,
EPISODE 1.

* THOSE CRAZY KIDS: Star Wars was the ultimate kid movie. What kid
hasn't seen this movie and loved it? Kids will be throwing mad money at
Episode 1, esp. if it is anywhere as fun and upbeat as Ep. 4.Titanic
won't be able to compete with the numbers of kids who will see Ep. 1.
And they will see it over and over again. The only downside? Kids don't
pay full price.

Speaking of which, when most people update the grosses according to the
number tickets sold, they never factor in child admission, which skews
Star Wars's box office gross higher than it should be. Everyone seems to
make their adjustments based solely on an adult amdission price, when
when much larger percentage of the audience for Star Wars compared to
Titanic (which had nowhere as many kid viewers as Star Wars) didn't pay
full price. Star Wars may have had more viewers, but that doesn't
neccassarily mean it outgrossed Titanic. Anyhow, ADVANTAGE: EPISODE 1.

* THE ORIGINAL STAR WARS KIDS: Those twenty and early will see it at
least once. The early twentysomthings seeing twice perhaps. But the big
stumbling block will be women. If women don't buy into this, there's no
way it'll out gross Titanic here. Once again I say, Padme better kick
ass. ADVANTAGE: Titanic.

* WILL THE GEEZERS WATCH IT? Here in the States, baby boomers (adults
aged 38-55) have been going to the movies less and less. So much to the
point that their tastes are, for the most part ignored by Hollywood.
Titanic actually got boomers into the theater in large quantities. Why?
Because it reminded them of those old-fashioned epic movies they watched
growing up. Of course afterward, they complained like hell about the
conry dialgoue. Unlike the young, boomers tend to see a movie only
once and that's that. I don't think they really have any real
anticipation over the prequels. They don't really "get" Star Wars when
it first came out, and they won't get it next year. I don't really see
Ep. 1 outmussling Titnaic with this group. They might see it with their
kids ONCE. But only once IF they do. ADVANTAGE: TITANIC.

* INTERNATIONAL: I think that Episode 1 is the perfect kind of
blockbuster for the international market. Very visual, minimal dialogue,
minimal characterization, very plot driven. This movie will kick ass
over seas. And yet, I don't think Episode 1 will have the same sort of
emotional appeal that endeared Titanic to the overseas audience. Titanic
tocuched peoples hearts. Star Wars made our hearts race. And thta's a
big difference. ADVANTAGE: TITANIC

MY PREDICTION: I think Episode one is going to do extremely well. I
don't think it will do Titanic-like numbers. Here's how I think it will
do:

EPISODE ONE (in 1998 dollars):

US: $450 million
INTERNATIONAL: $850 million

EP. 2
US: $300 million
INTERNATIONAL: $600 million

EP. 3
US: $250 million
INT: $500 million"

MAY 01

Brad Webster wrote:
"In response to James C.'s post:

Very good points made-

Episode 1 will definitely not get the same kind of repeat success with
the females as "Titanic" did, which could be its downfall (in terms of
being the top-grossing movie of all-time).

But what it definitely has over Titanic is the fact that it will appeal
to every generation. With the re-release of Episodes 4-6, children now
are familiar with the story, plus with all of the promotional tie-ins
(i.e., action figures), and the fact the movies will be PG material,
they will be flocking to the prequels. Its a given that twentysomethings
will see it- the trilogy is a defining moment in our generation's
history, an important part of our childhood. And contrary to what you
said, I believe you are underestimating the impact the trilogy had on
the baby-boomers. I remember going to the opening of the re-release of
"A New Hope", and seeing adults in their forties and fifties acting like
kids, excited with anticipation, waiting for the movie to begin...

Episode might not surpass "Titanic" financially at the box-office, but I
do believe it will have a much larger impact on movie history than
"Titanic" ever will..."

MAY 02

Theresa Khuri wrote:
"I think Episode One will be a big hit......even if its not good (though
I'm sure it will be). I went to the S E in the theaters and in one show
people were cheering. Now lets think on that......that was the re-
release of A N H.Think of the whooping and cheering for the Prequal. As
for it surpassing Titanic, that is questionable. I'm sure it will make a
lot of money, but it will be pretty hard to catch up to Titanic. Here's
the people that will see the movie

TEENS: ages 13-17 will like it and will probobly go in groups to that.
(Never under estimate the power of the teen groups...they'll make you a
fortune :-)

YOUNG ADULTS: People in their twentys who saw the original will
definatly come.

KIDS: A lot of kids will want to see this movie , primarily ages 6-12.

ADULTS: The grown-ups who liked Star Wars when it came out in the
seventys, will want to see this....an exiteing time to remember when
they were young.

OTHER: Non Star wars fans will only be lured in by a good storyline,good
acting, and good effects."

MAY 03

EZ9D9 wrote:
"After not posting for well over a month now due to computer troubles, I just
had to put my 2 cents in on this. First I agree 100% w/ Zac on how much of a
differance paying 3 bucks in 1977 compaired to 7.50 in '97/ '98. There is one
thing left out, how long the movie is in theaters. I don't recall how long
ANH was out in '77, but Titanic is going on 7 months now, so that would help
on how much a movie takes in. As for Episode I, if it stays in theaters as
long and w/ as many of us (SW Fans) there are out there, it should have no
trouble making Titanic sink. As for Titanic, I seen it once and did think it
was a good movie, but don't understand why people would spend 7 dollars to sit
for a 3 hour documentary that needed a love story to make it interrsting and
so it wouldn't bore you w/ how long it is. The Posidian Adventure was just as
good a movie as Titanic but didn't make anywhere near the top 10 films.
They're both about a ship that sinks, the only differance it the name of the
ship. I strayed from the actual topic enough so I think that it."

Jonathan Bowen wrote:
"Hello, my name is Jonathan Bowen, and I track many movies at the box-office,
therefore I know a lot about what movies succeed. First off, I would like to
say that there is absolutely no way that Episode 1 will NOT beat Titanic
both Worldwide and in the US. In fact, I will go as far as saying that if
Episode 1 doesn't make $1 Billion dollars in the US, I will personally
apologize to everyone who reads this. Crazy you say? I think not. Titanic is
a terrible movie, and was only watched by hormone crazed girls. PEOPLE,
there are 40 year olds that LOVE Star Wars because they saw it 21 years ago
(minus a month). Furthermore, anyone who thinks the summer is a bad time for
Episode 1 should get a brain, NOBODY will release a movie within 4 weeks of
EPISODE 1. Be afraid Titanic fans, be very afraid. I will take a hammer and
destroy this 300 MHz Pentium II if Titanic doesn't get slaughtered by
Episode 1. Also, critics said the Special Editions would make $100 million
combined, they made $251 million! "Your lack of faith is disturbing!" I will
also say Episode 1 will be the first movie to break: 1) $200 million in the
first weekend 2) $2 Billion worldwide 3) biggest second weekend gross,
third...fourth....fifth, and the list goes on. New characters bad? Are you
kidding? Who wants to see Han and Luke as old men? I don't. I want to know
more about the Old Republic and the Jedi Knights, that's far more
interesting. YOU WAIT; EPISODE 1 WILL STRIKE BACK!

AS MY FRIEND ALWAYS SAYS "Jedi don't seek revenge....but Star Wars DOES!!!!"

MAY 07

ZacknowsSW wrote:
"I don't think it will be that bad for teen girls during episode 2 and 3
because Aniken's downfall is supposed to be a tragic and emotional event plus
in episode 2 Aniken and Padme are to wed as in Episode 3 we will see the
family torn apart so teen girls may see the movie in large quanities. I don't
really know if the prequels will beat 'Titanic" (by the way I haven't seen it,
I guess that makes me a better SW fan) the only one between Episodes 1-3 with
a shot at it will definitly be Episode 1. Remember that Episodes 2 and 3 are
supposed to be gloomy and dark. Episode 2 may have a shot at it but Episode 3
to my opinion will not. I think Padme will be a fighter, after all she is
very similar to Leia, but I think she will be very frail and calm in Episode
1. Possibly Aniken and Obi-Wan will train her as a Jedi for self-defense or
give her some training. It is very likely, we know Palpatine is from Naboo,
and I've seen it rumored he's Luke's grandfather. If not Padme will be
Palpatine shouldn't see Luke as a threat if Aniken is the only one in his
family with strong powers in the Force because he turned Aniken to the Dark
Side, so why would it be so hard with Luke?
I think that George has another "I am your father" scene to come or a large
space battle in Episode 3 or land battle of some sorts were the Jedis are
exterminated at war, they are smarter than to be struck down one by one."

MAY 12

Jeffrey A. Michailo wrote:
"As much as I would love to see E1 become the highest grossing film of all time, it probably isn't likely. Here is my reasoning.

1. The audience. Titanic was able to capture almost every category, with the weak side of kids under 13. Older people grew up with Titanic, Teenagers went to go see Leo and Kate and middle age people went because it was THE movie to see. E1 will definitely get us fans and the kids. It will get a large portion of the midle aged and about 85% of the teens. The advantage is to Titanic, because it brought the elderly in and the teenage girls who came to see it over and over because of Leo.

2. Opening weekend. No contest, E1...Come on, it's star wars!

3. Longevity. This is gonna depend solely on the story. I have no doubt that George Lucas wrote an incredible story. However, I don't think that you can compete with a love story. People as a whole, love, love stories. As great as the story for E1 is, I don't think it will stay in the theaters for 6 months. I give the edge to Titanic, but, it is close because the E1 story will kick ass.

4. Second time viewers. The question is, will the core audience flock to see E1 multiple times as Titanic? Probably, but the numbers won't be as great. Advantage: Titanic.

5. Audience awareness. People knew about Titanic quite a while in advance due to it's enormous budget. The common people really don't know very much about the new Prequels...Lucas needs to get a title and a teaser poster out. Sure, everyone will go see E1...but let's not forget, the world is full of idiots...there are probably tons of people that don't realize that there are new Star wars movies coming out. Advantage: Prequels, BUT, not by much.

I think that with out a doubt, E1 will be more successful that Titanic around the world, but, probably not in America. Here is my suggestion for E2 success...(don't shoot me) Cast Leo as Anakin in E2 I really think he would do a great job. He is a good actor and, he'd bring the women in!!!!!! I mean, we know the story will kick ass, so how could it hurt to bring in Leo just to get the money."

Rick Miller wrote:
"First off I would like to say I am stunned that anyone would honestly
believe that Ep. 1 will not beat Titanic. Titanic did not have the
Fox and Star Wars merchandising machine behind it, and if published
reports (rumors) are true and a title is added within the month ie:
Star Wars: Guardians of the Force then the merchandising machine will
begin to crank up. I have read in published reports that theatrical
trailers and one-shot posters will make a summer debut and we can
expect, I would assume, some early Christmas marketing and commercials
on Fox every hour on the hour from Christmas on.

I would also like to send kudos to Jonathan Bowen for writing first
what I have been saying all along, this movie will easily surpass the
$200 million mark during its initial weekend and I am willing to
repeat his offer of smashing my personal computer if it does not do so.

Cocky, you say? just look at the Star Wars dynamic it transcends
boundries and genres it is geared towards guys and gals, young and
old. It is science fiction and it is fairy tale, it is phenominal
special effects and an engaging storyline (unlike Titanic which was
great Spec. F/X and a mediocre story at best).
I have ten or so friends at the office who are already making camp-out
plans for opening day tickets, and we are not what you call "rabid
fans", though at time some of our lunicy teeters on the brink. What
we are, like Titanic fiends, but to a greater degree are young
twentysomthing professionals who can remember vividly the opening
scroll and soundtrack and want to recapture with reckless abandon a
small fragile piece of our childhood for two-hours and escape from the
hustle and bustle of the real world and once again travel A long time
ago in a galaxy far, far away. . ."

Ben McGriff wrote:
"I'm a man of few words but I'm predicting Episode 1 will do better than
Titanic for three reasons. One, as many have stated, the anticipation
for this movie has been coming ever since Lucas said he'd be eventually
making nine movie way back in the early days. So people are bound to
see this more times than they chose to see Titanic. Very few people I
know saw Titanic more than once (my self included). Two, Titanic was
very long, this may sound petty but I don't know many people willing to
sit through a three hour movie more than once and theatures can show
shorter movies for the same price more often in a day. Finally I
honestly believe the rereleases would have gone better had they not been
three weeks apart from each other, meaning Episode 1 will not have other
Star Wars competing with itself.

With those two...three cents I want to urge everyone to purposefully
drive GL's wallet through the roof on May 25, 1999. I know I'll
probably contribute at least $18 to it."

MAY 14

Theresa Kuhri wrote:
"Jediforce

First I want to say this: E1 will make a lot of money its first weekend.
And it will make even more money since it is being released Memorial Day
Weekend.(How amusing it would be to see people camping near the theater
to get tickets:-)
I hope that E1 sinks Titanic,if it does not I won't smash my computer
like the other two:) . I have a naw strategy (not let Titanic win mind
you) go see it several times........Maybe twenty times.I will contribute
38.50 the first weekend.(They should have contests of who gives the most
to the film:)
Now I am going to give reasons why E1 will do well.

1. THIS IS THE PREQUAL TO STAR WARS THE HISTORY MAKING SCIENCE FICTION FILMS.

2.LIAM NEESON IS A GREAT ACTOR AND WILL REALLY GIVE A GOOD POTRAYEL OF THE NEW JEDI MASTER.

3.IT'S MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND RELEASE WILL BE A HISTORIC EVENT FOR THE BOX OFFICE.

:-) :-) :-)

This is my two cents on the matter.

Any Titanic fans who don't agree.......call in!

WARNING:THE ABOVE TWO CENTS MIGHT BE NOT BE APPRECIATED BY VERY BIG TITANIC FANS.

:-) :-) :-) ( HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA)

NOTE TO TITANIC FANS: IF YOU ARE DISSAPOINTED AT THE SUCCESS OF
E1.......NO MONEY BACK......GUARANTEED.

(HEHEHEHEHEHE)"

MAY 15

Dick May wrote:
"As much as I'd like to see Episode I become the highest grossing movie in history, I don't believe that it will. I think that there is little doubt, judging from all the hype that it has generated thus far (still over a year away from its release), that it will set the record for the highest grossing opening weekend. Here are my reasons why it will not surpass Titanic;

        1) Star Wars (A New Hope) success in 1977 was in part due to the uniqueness of it. Never in the history of movies had people witnessed such fantastic special effects. Though the "staying power" of any good movie relies completely on the quality of the story, people paid to watch Star Wars in 1977 partially for the incredible visuals. Granted, the incredible story is what has made it so endearing over the years.
        These same circumstances will not encompass the release of Episode I next year. People have been blown away with special effects for the last twenty years, and special effects alone are no longer enough to sway an otherwise uninterested movie-goer to pay the price of admission. Furthermore, the Star Wars universe is no longer a novelty as it was twenty years ago. The average viewer (non Star Wars fanatic like ourselves) may probably be thinking "been there, done that" to another Star Wars movie.
        2) I have certain doubts about the ability of an 8 year character (Anakin) to be the hero of this first movie. I was slightly disappointed when I read the speculation about Anakin winning the space battle in his yellow fighter at the end of Episode I, I certainly hope that this is not what will happen. Movies with children as the hero have nearly always disappointed because they lose credibility. I hope that George realizes this also and keeps Anakin's role as a hero to a minimum (they are certainly enough other interesting characters to shoulder the weight of "saving the day"). I think that people will not continue to go to repeat viewings of a movie where a child saves the day. I could be wrong.
        3) I have recently read two things which cast a lot of doubt in my mind about the "greatness" of the story that we all keep hearing about. In an interview with Ewan McGreggor which can be found on TheForce.Net, he blatantly says that George's dialogue is not that good. When the interviewer asked Ewan if he approached George about this, Ewan replied, "What am I going to do? Say George your dialogue sucks?"
        The other thing I've read recently, and I can't remember where, is the GL once said in an interview that the movie which he had the most creative input on was Return of the Jedi. In my honest opinion (and many disagree with me on this), ROTJ was far and away the worst movie of the original trilogy, with very few memorable sequences. If GL has complete creative control over Episode I, then it may in fact turn out to be a lot like ROTJ. I do not think that people will continue to pay admission to see Episode I if it is anything less than perfect.
        If Episode I is to become the most successful movie in history, then it must tell a timeless and endearing story. The dialogue must be memorable. How many bits of dialogue can you quote from "Star Wars" and how many can you quote from "ROTJ"? If you are like me then you pretty much have Star Wars memorized and can barely think of a single line from ROTJ.

Anyway one last thought, how about casting Matt Damon in the role of Anakin for Episodes two and three"

SNS22 wrote:
"I don't understand what all this big deal about MONEY is? Star Wars is not
supposed to be about The money, it's about The story, the writing, the acting
(Definitely Top Quality), The directing, and the Special Effects. If Lucas was
in this for The money, he would have rushed this thing through and picked Big
Name Stars and pushed for Over Marketing. But that's not what This is all
about.

The Suggestion that Leo DiCaprio play Anakin in Episode Two is completely sacrilegious. Lucas has never gone after High-Priced Big-Named actors, but rather TALENTED (Let's face it, most of Leo's appeal is based on his apperance and charm, not on his talent), Well-Trained Actors...even for small roles. Many of the minor Imperial Officers in Empire and Jedi were played by members of London's Royal Academy of acting, and if I'm not Mistaken Ian McDiarmid was from there too.

Lucas would never make the horrible mistake Joel Schumacher made and cast a group of Untalented High Priced, Big Name Actors as in "Batman And Robin". That film which tried to sell based on its Special Effects was a complete
cheeseball. Sure, it made a lot of money..but it was horrible. Do we want
Lucas to do that? Star Wars will sell on its name alone, does it need people
like Leo DiCaprio and very bad writing? Hell no..Harrison Ford wasn't a big
name, high priced Actor...and look what he did.. Can you imagine what would
have happened if Lucas has chosen High Priced Big Name Actors in SW4? Burt
Reynolds was a high priced, Big name Actor in 1977..would you be happy if he
had played Han Solo? I THINK NOT!!!!!!!

I must commend Lucas for his choice of Actors...They aren't Complete
Unknowns, but they are definitely not household names. Natalie Portman has a
big future ahead of her (And I hope it's more successful than Carrie Fisher's
Post-Star Wars career). Liam Neeson is still "that guy from Schindler's List"
and "Rob Roy" (Which was 100 times better than BraveHart..again, big Name
Sells), And Ewan McGregor is known from the "cult" film Trainspotting.

Would you rather substitute...Alicia Silverstone (Can you say Acting
lessons?), Leo (for Ewan), and say...Mel Gibson for Liam? sure, it might make
a lot of money..but will they be "remembered" for Star Wars? I doubt it...Mark
Hamill and Carrie Fisher will always be sonomyous with Luke Skywalker and
Princess Leia. No matter what Harrison Ford does, he'll always be remembered
as Han Solo (And Indiana Jones). Just like Christopher Reeve will always be
Superman to Us. Warner Bros has subjected us to 3 Batmans, none of which will
be remembered as being "Batman" the way Adam West is. So Lucas is making the right decision in casting little known, yet very talented Actors who are just
beginning to make an impact. Just like the original trilogy propelled Harrison
Ford (and to a lesser extent, Hamill and Fisher to superstardom) the Prequels
has the potential to do the same for Portman and McGregor and EP 2-3's Anakin.

So in My Opinion, the Success of The Prequels will not be determined by how
much money it makes since Bad Movies can make Money (Batman And Robin). But by the Critical Acclaim (It has to live up to The Original Trilogy) and by the
impact it has on people. Star Wars is a classic, often imitated (Battlestar
Galactica), but never duplicated. We can only wait and see if the New Trilogy
will be as "Influential." Titanic may have made a lot of money, but It sure
cost a lot to film it as well. I for one am hoping Lucas doesn't go overboard
on Special Effects to cover-up for a weak storyline. Special Effects should
Enhance a film, not make up for lack of quality in other areas."

JULY 11

Mark Lucas wrote:
"I was six, going on seven when I saw Star Wars. It cemented my interest
in science fiction and the fantastical well into my adult life.
I have seen some interesting speculation here about how successful
people think the films will be.

Well the reason I think we had to wait so long for Episode one is the
George was just plain scared to death to follow up on his promise of a
sequel (prequel).

You simply can't live up to Star Wars, It wasn't just a great movie, it
was a cultural phenomenon which changed the direction of mainstream
cinema, and provided a wider acceptance of Science Fiction (even though
SW is better described as Space Fantasy).

I really do not think that any film is going to have an effect like Star
Wars did, any time soon. I suspect that the prequel trilogy will be
aimed a little
higher than Star Wars was. Audiences are more sophisticate (in some
areas) than
those of 1977. I think that the key audience is going to be those like
myself who grew up fighting lightsabre duels and X-Wing dogfights, all
now in their late twenties, early thirties.

So will it be successful?
VERY VERY VERY Successful. It will break all records for openings,
though
it may not beat Titanic in overall ticket sales. That said, how many
Titanic
Action figures has everyone got? How many lunch boxes, computer games,
comics
etc etc..

Its easier to talk money 'value' than talk cultural 'value', ultimately
Episode One's money value is as safe a bet as day following night. I am
more interested
in its cultural influence."

Mordred Starkiller wrote:
"First off, I don't know if Episode I or any of the prequels' episode
will surpass what Titanic made (I haven't seen it, yet, but will when
it comes out on video); I'm gonna let time tell me if it does. But
this I do know: George Lucas is making one helluva movie that
EVERYBODY will want to see. Why? Because the Star Wars movies always
tends to be unique and not like the rest. This imply especially on A
New Hope. ANH was a real novelty, not just because of the special
effects, but because it took our dreams and imagination to a new level
like no other movies had before it. Then we got used to Star Wars and
the other episodes. When we watched the other epsiodes, our dreams
and imagination were at that level. Then, some of us wipe Star Wars
off in our memory, except those who were touch by it. It has been 15
years since we sawed the last Episode of Star Wars and one year since
we saw the Special Edition. Between those time periods and after
those time period, no movie tried to take our imagination to where
Star Wars has. None! (name me any movies that even tried to reached
or surpassed what Star Wars had done) Thus our dream and imagination
some what dwindled. I expected that history will repeat itself (Just
like in 1977) once again when Star Wars: Episode I comes out, because
it WILL be a novelty and it will once again revive our dreams and
imagination.

One more thing: this is my take on why Mr. Michailo and et al. wants
Leo to be casted as Anakin. Your either desperate for Star Wars to be
number one or you want to see pretty boy face get burned. Obviously
the former is the real reason and this is what I have to said: "No
Star Wars fan, even the littlest, have to be desperate for Star Wars
to be no. 1. I mean, so what. Who cares. Star Wars is Star Wars and
that's the way it should be."

JUNE 15

Rjj719 wrote:
"     This was an interesting discussion and I thought I was the only one who
pondered this. A few things need to be taken into consideration withthis
issue.
     First of all, I have read that most film makers are trying earnestly to
stay away from the Summer, 1999 as film release dates due to the new Star Wars
film. That is probably why so many films are scheduled to be released in 1998,
despite their apparent lack of preparedness. The only films I have heard of
with tentative Summer, 1999 release dates are "Tarzan", Disney's next animated
film, and "Wild,Wild West" starring Will Smith ( as well as Kenneth Branaugh
who was originally rumored to be Obi-Wan some time ago.) My point? The film
with the edge on the summer release schedule has the advantage. In
1997,"Titanic" was scheduled to be released over the July 4th weekend. It was
vaulted until December probably for several reasons. All in all, it had its
own month without much competition. Therefore, it cashed in the bucks and
Episode I will do the same and should come at least very close to "Titanic".
   On a downer for Episode I, I must say that there is a large number of
teenagers who will NOT want to see the film because of their insistence on
being "different". It is a known fact that Star Wars has become a viatal part
of the entertainment industry and many of the 12-16 year olds are against
norm. I am a 29-year old teacher and was 8 when the first film came out. I am
esctatic about the film. The film, however, will pull in millions mainly from
17-30 year olds. Kids from certain backgrounds will see it first and
hopefully a good word of mouth will pull in the rest. Of course, girls will be
reluctant to see the film quickly and will have to rely on curiosity steming
from boys. Women between ages 18-30, however, will probably be as excited to
see it as men in the same age range because of the apprecitaion factor.
     One more factor to consider is marketing. Ticket prices may go up as much
as a dollar just because of the new film, as strange as it may sound. I don't
think, though, that marketing will be a problem. This isn't Godzilla. Many
theatres without THX will get it by May, 1999 just to support Episode I.
Anyway, look at all of the forums and internet sites relating to the prequels
and official marketing hasn't even begun.
MY PREDICTION: EPISODE I MAKES $100 MILLION IN ITS OPENING WEEKEND, $300 MILLION IT ITS FIRST MONTH BUT TOPS OUT AT BTW $470-$520 MILLION OVERALL."